The fierce fights now taking place in Basra, Nasirya, Samawa, Diwanya, Hilla, and Kut are expected to be the final fight with Mehdi Militia. Although I don't see it as the final fight because for the last two years they have been killing innocents for sectarian reasons, and now they will be fighting for their own lives and existence. So, its not going to be easy, short, nor final.

Based on what I have seen from Maliki since he took over, I do not really think that he suddenly grow a conscious and decided to fight the bad people. Hes just not that kind of a guy.

Here is what I think is behind this fight,

If you read the names of the cities and provinces in which the fight is fierce, you can easily link it to another list. The list of the provinces that Al-Hakim wants in his "Southern Federation". Of course we will have to add Najaf and Karbala. Referring to the Article 115 of the Iraqi constitution;

"One or more provinces shall have the right to organize into a region based on a request to be voted on in a referendum submitted in one of the following two methods:

A. A request by one-third of the council members of each province intending to form a region.

B. A request by one-tenth of the voters in each of the province intending to form a region."

And since Al-Sadr has many followers in all of these provinces, and the Sadr PMs are highly against this decision, it will be virtually impossible for Al-Hakim and the Shiaa Coalition to impose such a decision without kicking Muqtada and his followers out of the way.

So, now the fight continues until the Mehdi militia is severely weakened, the Sadr PMs withdraw from the parliament, new provincial councils are voted for next October, new council members are Al-Hakim people, new council members demand the creation of the southern-region, a referendum is held, money paid to the buy the voting and Sadrists are forced to shut-up earlier, and finally the southern-region is created.

This way, Al-Hakim has booked the 70% of the Iraqi oil that used to belong to Saddam before, and have never belonged to the Iraqi people nor spent in their interest since the oil was discovered in Iraq.

Why Al-Maliki is doing this for Al-Hakim, you might ask. Maybe he offered him a share of the cake maybe with some important political position in the southern-region so they would not bother paying for the next elections of the parliament because they will have their own government, oil, and army.

The Sunnis can not do anything about it since it is, according to the constitution, the sole right of the people living in these provinces to decide whether they want to be in a federal-region of their own or not, and the parliament has no say in this. And the Kurdish leaders are fine with it as long as it has nothing to do with Kurdistan region nor Kirkuk.

The only way to prove me wrong, is after kicking the Mehdi militia's a*ses, Badr people should be next, and that is not going to happen.