The Right Thing Done for the Wrong Reason
Iraq nowdays March 28th, 2008The fierce fights now taking place in Basra, Nasirya, Samawa, Diwanya, Hilla, and Kut are expected to be the final fight with Mehdi Militia. Although I don't see it as the final fight because for the last two years they have been killing innocents for sectarian reasons, and now they will be fighting for their own lives and existence. So, its not going to be easy, short, nor final.
Based on what I have seen from Maliki since he took over, I do not really think that he suddenly grow a conscious and decided to fight the bad people. Hes just not that kind of a guy.
Here is what I think is behind this fight,
If you read the names of the cities and provinces in which the fight is fierce, you can easily link it to another list. The list of the provinces that Al-Hakim wants in his "Southern Federation". Of course we will have to add Najaf and Karbala. Referring to the Article 115 of the Iraqi constitution;
"One or more provinces shall have the right to organize into a region based on a request to be voted on in a referendum submitted in one of the following two methods:
A. A request by one-third of the council members of each province intending to form a region.
B. A request by one-tenth of the voters in each of the province intending to form a region."
And since Al-Sadr has many followers in all of these provinces, and the Sadr PMs are highly against this decision, it will be virtually impossible for Al-Hakim and the Shiaa Coalition to impose such a decision without kicking Muqtada and his followers out of the way.
So, now the fight continues until the Mehdi militia is severely weakened, the Sadr PMs withdraw from the parliament, new provincial councils are voted for next October, new council members are Al-Hakim people, new council members demand the creation of the southern-region, a referendum is held, money paid to the buy the voting and Sadrists are forced to shut-up earlier, and finally the southern-region is created.
This way, Al-Hakim has booked the 70% of the Iraqi oil that used to belong to Saddam before, and have never belonged to the Iraqi people nor spent in their interest since the oil was discovered in Iraq.
Why Al-Maliki is doing this for Al-Hakim, you might ask. Maybe he offered him a share of the cake maybe with some important political position in the southern-region so they would not bother paying for the next elections of the parliament because they will have their own government, oil, and army.
The Sunnis can not do anything about it since it is, according to the constitution, the sole right of the people living in these provinces to decide whether they want to be in a federal-region of their own or not, and the parliament has no say in this. And the Kurdish leaders are fine with it as long as it has nothing to do with Kurdistan region nor Kirkuk.
The only way to prove me wrong, is after kicking the Mehdi militia's a*ses, Badr people should be next, and that is not going to happen.
March 28th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
Interesting, I think I read like ten different theories of what was going on there but this wasn’t one of them. That makes sense, though from over here I have a hard time distinguishing it much from the same crap that’s been happening there in the last few years.
March 29th, 2008 at 8:53 am
Things have really been confusing. And the right theory is proved right only when its too late. Despite that, getting rid of Mehdi militia is the right thing to do. And some clerics and people who keep describing Muqtada as a “patriotic leader” fighting against the Americans and/or the Iranian backed forces are simply wrong. No Iraqi person will forget the massive killings done by his people during 2006 & 2007. The drilled skulls, the chopped fingers, and the smashed ribs will never be forgotten. And describing Muqtada as the poor hero who everyone wants a piece of, is pure BS.
My only hope is that innocent civilians would not be hurt in this cleansing.
March 29th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
It worries me though that you pointed out that that kind of thinking is BS, as I’m guessing that means that someone somewhere is still saying it about his Nasrallah posturing? Or just himself?
Have you heard of Abu Aardvark? He won’t tell you anything you don;t already know but he did a roundup of what people are saying, if you’re curious at all about what the academics think.
http://abuaardvark.typepad.com/abuaardvark/2008/03/moral-hazard.html
March 29th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
Oops this was the post I meant to link to
http://abuaardvark.typepad.com/abuaardvark/2008/03/another-theory.html
March 29th, 2008 at 8:20 pm
Nadia those are too many theories. One thing I hope is that the government hold the will to go through this to the end. And be trustworthy enough to keep the fight against other militias.
The question “Why start in Basra?” just supports my point. Everyone knows that the biggest stronghold for Sadr people is Al-Sadr City. Its not Basra, Nasirya, Samawa, or any other city. So, wouldn’t it make more sense to start there?
March 29th, 2008 at 11:12 pm
Hah sorry did I not say it was giving me a headache already? I will say so now. I think that’s a good point that like you said adds more than the others.
I hope the same happens as well, but my expectations are low.
March 31st, 2008 at 1:35 am
Last of Iraqis (Dr. Mohammed) and many other Iraqis agree with you on Muqtada. I wish Muqtada was more like Alusi, but he appears not to be. But I remain amazed by how popular Muqtada is among non-Iraqis. Must be his super-human charisma. By contrast many Iraqis are immune to Muqtada’s charm.
Are you satisfied by the performance of the Iraqi Army over the past week?
March 31st, 2008 at 9:46 am
anand,
There is a saying in Iraq “il mayit mayitna, o i7na nidri be shloon manboosh saf7a” translates to “The dead is our guy, and we now how bad he was, so we don’t cry for his death”.
Iraqis are the ones who suffered from Saddam before, and the Arabs still love him because they did not suffer because of him. And when the other people listen to what Muqtada is saying they believe him. We Iraqis know who is killing our people, thus, we hate Muqtada, among others.
The news from Basra are so contradicting. The government is saying that the operation is successful. The Militia men say that the army people are putting down their guns. The british troops were redeployed to support the Iraqi troops. My guess is that we will never know the truth.
April 8th, 2008 at 4:17 am
[…] Blog Iraq sees the aims of the forces that want to partition Iraq. Namely the party of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim wants to create an independent region in Southern Iraq a […]
April 10th, 2008 at 7:09 pm
[…] izany fotoana izany Blog Iraq mahatsinjo fa ny tanjon’ny fampiasan-kery dia ny hanasamantsamahana an’i Iraka. Voatonona amin’izany ny antokon’i Abdul Aziz al-Hakim maniry hanangana faritra […]
April 30th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
[blogiraqi] “The question “Why start in Basra?” just supports my point. Everyone knows that the biggest stronghold for Sadr people is Al-Sadr City.”
To me the answer seems pretty obvious. Basra is where most of Iraq’s OIL is exported from. Doubtless the Sadrists got a piece of the pie of that revenue. Take Basra and you give Sadr a big body-blow which will cripple the movement in the future.
I hear what you say about Sadr. He’s not exactly the nicest guy around, and really, NOBODY should have militias in Iraq.
However, the truth is that we are having our debate within the context of an AMERICAN OCCUPIED IRAQ. The truth is - and you seems to agree - is that Iraq’s “government” isn’t so much a government as a collection of sectarian politicians trying to leverage their own personal agenda into power, while hopefully using American muscle to do in their rivals. The Americans are happy to be the power broker and happy to use Iraqi’s sectarian and ethnic divisions to their own advantage.
The reason many people support Muqtada inside and outside Iraq is because he has fought, and fights, against the American invader. The same as many people support other Iraqis that are willing to fight or work for a free Iraq.
As outsiders, we have no vested interests in which Iraqi faction wins or loses - but speaking for myself, I DO hope that Iraqis can draw together and overcome the sectarian barriers that have been erected amongst you. I’m aware that some Sadrists have done terrible things. I’m aware that some “sunnis” may have done the same.
But in the end the choice is simple. (simple - but not easy, I admit.)
Do Iraqis want to continue to be divided by sectarian anger under Occupation forever more … or can Iraqis draw together and eject the invader?
Know this - for as long as sectarianism lasts, so most likely the Occupier will endure, playing one group of Iraqis off against the other.
April 14th, 2009 at 5:22 pm
As the application of American philosophy on freedom, nothing could show its hypocrisy more than to dictate how Iraq should be living, or that America has the right to partition it.
It takes foreign intervention way too far, all under the presumed but illegal authority of the American government. If the same thing was done to America, there would be a holy outrage.